These are my current thoughts on what the world will be like in 2030. This was last updated in March 2021.

In 2030…

data & technology

• devices are hyper-connected and are constantly talking with each other
• highly networked devices helps drive decentralisation as computing power is distributed across people and not specific data center’s
• greater ownership of data by individuals
• greater monitoring and invasive technology/software in exchange for convenience

retail / eCommerce

• at least 50% of retail spend will be online
• non-physical goods will have a significant increase in market share
• amazon will offer delivery to custom locations other than home and office
• brick and mortar stores will begin to become more service-driven

payments

• BTC and ETH will be used for large scale transactions between organisations and decentralised services
• a layer-2 protocol on BTC and ETH will be more widely accepted for day-to-day transactions with businesses
• increase in direct peer-to-peer transactions separate from centralised entities (banks)

business

• a handful of leaders will figure out how to operate a business that uses decentralisation as a lever
• market cap of large tech companies continue to outpace other industries
• businesses that aim to create infrastructure for a future world will grow fast. industries such as EV and batteries, space travel and colonisation, biomedicine and life extension (a couple of big winners with many, many losers)

consulting

• Large consulting firms will reach a tipping point and need to make a decision – are we a strategy-focused, design-focused or implementation-focused
• The current Big 4 will attempt all 3 but lose share to smaller, more focused players
• Progressive firms will divest dedicated resources to focus on niche competencies
• organisations will reduce consulting spend as knowledge and skills become more decentralised

manufacturing

• the Chinese wave of manufacturing leadership will remain but begin to slow
• large-scale manufacturing hubs will be created in South America (Brazil, Columbia and Peru) and Africa (Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia)
• initial experiments of space manufacturing (either in-orbit or on the moon) will commence from SpaceX and Blue Origin

vehicles

• significant increase in % of EVs on the roads
• government subsidies at some point to increase adoption of EVs
• battery infrastructure will continue to grow
• some EV leaders will begin testing battery-as-a-service more widely – connected with a push for greater decentralisation, perhaps even paid for by a coin/token of some sort

travel

• global travel will reach new highs following steady return to mobility post-COVID-19

climate / environment

• irrevocable damage already done to the environment
• advanced countries and organisations have or are close to achieving carbon neutrality
• reminder commit to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 using processes and technology developed by the advanced

pop culture

• social media platforms will be reformed as advertisers look to utilise direct relationships between people and idols
• western culture will adopt their own version of eastern ‘idol’ culture when celebrities start connecting directly with fans

media

• traditional distribution and payment models will no longer generate enough revenue to justify increasing cost of creating AAA movies, tv shows and video games will become unsustainable
• subscription models continue to thrive
• significant increase in media consumed via mobile
• increase in media that is decentralised and shared on a blockchain